4Q19 OCTG Inventories: Survival of the Fittest

Photo Courtesy Borusan Jan-2020 OCTG Situation Report Cover

Photo Courtesy Borusan Mannesmann Pipe U.S.

Susan Murphy | The OCTG Situation Report

Susan Murphy | Publisher + Editor-in-Chief

Welcome to the new year and a new decade. While the results of our exclusive 4Q19 OCTG Inventory Yard Survey can’t steel you against unforeseen events, we trust it will provide some ‘2020 foresight’ to prepare you for any situation that arises in the tubular market this year. 

Gauging the fitness of the industry by measuring demand for OCTG throughout the entire supply chain across the lower 48 is the goal every quarter and what sets the OCTG Situation Report apart from all others. Our January 2020 Report offers a deep dive into all the metrics that matter in our most recent OCTG inventory yard survey as well as how the changes impact the OCTG market. 

So, let’s crunch some numbers: our 4Q19 inventory survey proved that folks were resolved to shed some ‘pounds’ heading into the new year. Overall “prime” US upstream OCTG inventories were reduced by a healthy sum thinning the total inventory count significantly. This is the leanest volume of US inventory stockpiles we’ve seen in a few years. 

We’re also pumped to announce that OCTG inventories in the “tri-state” (TX, OK, LA), where the bulk of activity we track takes place, were pared to a level we haven’t seen for almost a decade. This new low tips the scales in favor of a far better supply-demand balance when entering into a year where uncertainty rules the day. 

Another quarter of aggressive pricing helped cut excess inventories throughout the quarter putting inventory in a better position to endure any challenges that 2020 may bring. It also didn’t hurt that domestic shipments for 4Q19 are projected to be the lowest since early 2018. Likewise, imported shipments are expected to be at their lowest point since late 2016. 

With two back-to-back quarters of material destocking now behind us we’re observing a pronounced pattern that has emerged during the second half of the past two years. This conspicuous offloading of inventories appears to be the result of the intense squeeze put upon producers from Wall Street making for a 1H weighted market, where 2H “budget exhaustion” more or less creates the conditions for OCTG for the remainder of the year. It will be interesting to see how this development shifts oilfield dynamics moving forward.  

Despite the weighty talk of industry belt-tightening and profit growth over production growth, there’s no good reason to throw in the towel. While CAPEX is trending down Y/Y operators are able to do more with less, thus supporting continued well activity. OPEC-Plus output cuts together with falling production in North America also favors improving market dynamics; and no one would be wrong to expect them—just not this year. So, while 2020 may feel more like an exercise in routine, we should remind our readers of the old adage: “no pain, no gain!”

Photo Courtesy Borusan Mannesmann Pipe U.S.

Posted in 2020 E & P Budgets, CAPEX, Crude Oil Prices, E&P, E&P spending, Energy, ERW Pipe, HRC, Inventory, OCTG, OCTG CAPEX, OCTG Consumption, OCTG Consumption & Pricing, OCTG domestic shipments, OCTG Exports, OCTG Imports, OCTG inventories, OCTG Inventory Survey, OCTG mill, OCTG Mills, OCTG Pricing, OCTG Processors, OCTG Producers, OCTG Spot Prices, Oil & Gas Industry, Oil & Gas Pricing, Oil Country Tublular Goods, Oil Patch, Oil Services & Equipment, Onshore, Permian Basin, Prime Pipe, Q4, Seamless Pipe, Shale, steel industry, Supply Chain, upstream OCTG | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

OCTG Forecast 2020: Food for Thought

Photo Courtesy Apache Corporation, © Jim Blecha

Photo Courtesy Apache Corporation 
©Jim Blecha, http://www.oilandgasphotographers.com

Susan Murphy | The OCTG Situation Report

Susan Murphy | Publisher + Editor-in-Chief

’Tis the season, the time when we sift through stacks of data in order to provide some grist for the mill. Faced with lingering trade-related issues, global economic concerns and the general uncertainty heading into an election year there’s no sugarcoating the situation. Be that as it may, we herewith aim to separate the wheat from the chaff with the intention of serving you well into 2020. 

We’ll commence our thesis by crossing off “feast or famine” from the list of possible scenarios for OCTG in the coming year. The reality moving forward is more about establishing the ‘newest’ normal: a middle ground of sorts where everyone can attempt to secure a piece of the pie. 

When considering the composition of OCTG consumption let’s begin by examining commodity pricing, the jumping off point for drilling activity. This also serves as the baseline for our forecasts. The US benchmark for oil is expected to stay in the $50/bbl range—the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts WTI crude prices will average $54.50/bbl in 2020 compared with the YTD/October average of $56.78. Likewise, nat gas prices are projected to average $2.48/MMBtu, down 13¢ from the 2019 average. Metrics, when viewed together, that aren’t so much hard to stomach—just uneventful and underwhelming. 

This brings us to E&P Capex, which oils the wheels of this industry. Consensus opinion at this early juncture suggests muted US onshore spending will be lower Y/Y as operators forge ahead minus their Wall Street safety nets due to The Street’s lack of appetite for energy. This cautious spending scenario plays into the rig count which, by our estimate, will fall Y/Y as well. In the near term (one year out), demand for rigs will hinge solely on industry economics that are presently lackluster. After slicing and dicing all of the many metrics that contributed to our prognosis outlined here we also tendered our forecast for 2020 OCTG consumption. Complete details for each of our 2020 forecasts are available in this month’s market intel.

All this brings us to the “bottom line”: how will this trickle down to OCTG pricing and will the new reality bite? While demand has been known to recover seasonally (at first of year) imports will also increase (albeit to a lesser degree Y/Y) in the first quarter as quotas are reset. This could pressure prices even if demand improves modestly. 

And while raw material costs often recover in colder months that’s not a given this winter (through 1Q20). The market is oversupplied and there’s more capacity on the way from mini-mills incentivized from the giddy early days of the Section 232. The unprecedented level of new steel-making capacity at a time of limited or minimal demand growth has been coined “Steelmageddon” and even deemed worthy of a trademark by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. While this will all take time to materialize the threat of a “Sheet Tsunami” hangs over the market. The likely outcome is consolidation or business closures. Of course, lower capacity can mean higher steel prices but high inventories are likely to keep a lid on potential increases. To conclude, our call is for OCTG prices to be adrift.

So, while the OCTG market may not be “cooking with gas” in 2020 the outlook for the oil patch isn’t a recipe for disaster either. And for that we can all give thanks. 

NOTE: Our monthly blog posts offer a slice of the content we publish in The OCTG Situation Report every month. For a complimentary copy of The OCTG Situation Report for review please visit: https://www.octgsituationreport.com/subscribe

Photo Courtesy Apache Corporation ©Jim Blecha, http://www.oilandgasphotographers.com

Posted in 2020 E & P Budgets, CAPEX, Crude Oil Prices, E&P spending, Energy, ERW Pipe, Hot Rolled Coil, HRC, Inventory, OCTG, OCTG Consumption, OCTG Consumption & Pricing, OCTG domestic shipments, OCTG Exports, OCTG Imports, OCTG inventories, OCTG Mills, OCTG Pricing, OCTG Processors, OCTG Producers, OCTG Spot Prices, OCTG Trade Case, Oil & Gas Industry, Oil & Gas Pricing, Oil Country Tublular Goods, Oil Patch, Oil Prices, Oil Services & Equipment, Onshore, Permian Basin, Prime Pipe, Seamless Pipe, Section 232, steel industry, Steel Tarrifs, Tubular Goods, U.S. CAPEX | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

3Q19 OCTG Inventories: A Turn for the Better

The OCTG Situation Report October 2019 Hunting Energy

Photo Courtesy Hunting Energy

Susan Murphy | The OCTG Situation Report

Susan Murphy | Publisher + Editor-in-Chief

When it comes to diagnosing the health of the oil patch there’s no greater panacea than robust drilling activity, but a significant drop in OCTG inventories is always a shot in the arm for the supply chain. Thus, the results of our exclusive Quarterly Inventory Yard Survey can be viewed as a welcome relief. In 3Q19 (period ending 9/30/19) “prime” US upstream OCTG inventories in the lower 48 contracted significantly. Details can be found in this month’s OCTG Situation Report.

Material reductions were recorded in all but one category throughout the tri-state (TX, OK, LA). In the closely monitored tubing category a fairly impressive decline was logged this past quarter. Our separate survey of “select” distributors also confirmed the general eagerness to unload pipe inventories with a healthy decrease Q/Q. 

A combination of events played into the drawdown of inventories in Q3 facilitated by a slide in OCTG shipments over the third quarter of 2019. Not surprisingly, curtailed inbound activity versus outbound shipments was reported by many processors. Aggressive pricing, furthered by ‘steal’ market prices on raw materials, also helped move some excess inventories in Q3. Efforts across the board to reduce inventories, anticipated for the fourth quarter as well, will trickle down to improved consumption stats for 2019. This could play into better prices for tubular goods in 2020—depending, of course, on the trajectory of rigs in the new year. 

While the news on OCTG inventories was just what the doctor ordered, a turn for the worse for OCTG pricing this month is a bitter pill to swallow for the supply side. The skid M/M eroded prices to an average dollar per ton we haven’t seen in over a year. Judging from the erratic pricing inputs we received this month and the complete lack of consensus on almost every line item, it’s painfully clear that even distributors aren’t sure “what condition their condition is in” just yet. The steep rate of decline observed feels like a race to the bottom with no clear “bottom” in sight. 

There is the likelihood of a silver lining for the ailing supply chain and that is that continued sloughing of OCTG (as well as crude oil) inventories expected in Q4 will bring about a degree of stability to start the new year that the market hasn’t witnessed for a while. While our vision of 2020 may not yet be “the picture of health,” at the very least this news should have most feeling a bit better. 

NOTE: Our monthly blog posts offer a slice of the content we publish in The OCTG Situation Report® every month. To request a complimentary copy of our Report for review please visit: https://www.octgsituationreport.com/subscribe

Photo Courtesy Hunting Energy

Posted in 2019 E&P Budgets, Crude Oil Prices, E&P, E&P spending, Energy, ERW Pipe, Inventory, OCTG, OCTG 2019 Forecast, OCTG Consumption, OCTG Consumption & Pricing, OCTG domestic shipments, OCTG Exports, OCTG Imports, OCTG inventories, OCTG Inventory Survey, OCTG mill, OCTG Mills, OCTG Pricing, OCTG Processors, OCTG Producers, OCTG Spot Prices, Oil & Gas Industry, Oil & Gas Pricing, Oil Country Tublular Goods, Oil Patch, Oil Prices, Oil Services & Equipment, Onshore, Permian Basin, Pipe, Prime Pipe, Q3, Seamless Pipe, Section 232, steel industry, Steel Tarrifs, Supply Chain, Third Quarter, Tubular Goods | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Doing the Math on OCTG in Q3

November cover Image 2x3 300

Photo Courtesy ConocoPhillips Company

Susan Murphy | The OCTG Situation Report

Susan Murphy | Publisher + Editor-in-Chief

As the class of “2020” reconvenes at school this month we too are putting on our thinking caps and dusting off our previous 2019 forecasts to see if they stood the test of time. Reviewing the past couple months, it’s almost as if fall descended on the oil patch in June when we detected a chill in the air during our midyear market conversations. Sadly, our below-average updated annual projections now reflect the cooling drilling activity.

“Old school” conventional thinking would have range-bound oil prices in the mid-50s to low-60s all but guarantee a steady stream of OCTG demand but that notion is virtually a pipe dream in 2019. With the estranged environment that E&Ps find themselves in relationship to Wall Street there are no absolutes when it comes to predicting operator behavior. Given that, we soldiered through the minefield nonetheless. 

Looking back on what now feels like ancient history (November 2018), our analysis (based on more positive bellwethers at the time) led us to project slightly improved forecasts for the rig count and consumption than we saw for the full year 2018. Upon further consideration of our ‘altered’ reality and the fact “change is the only constant” we revised our calculations for the rig count, consumption and OCTG pricing in this month’s Report. Our prognosis at this juncture is for a steeper rig count decline although a potential uptick from the recent drone attack on one of Saudi Arabia’s largest oilfields knocking out half its oil capacity could increase our prediction. Along with our lowered expectations for the rig count we anticipate additional softening for OCTG demand and prices, too. 

On a side note, in our review of a profusion of stats it was unusual to see how closely 2019 consumption has tracked with 2018. In fact, our consumption figure YTD/July was so close to July of 2018 as to render the percent change Y/Y of no significant change. That was a first. This only reinforces how many could assume this year would unfold similarly considering all prior indicators and the fact E&Ps haven’t always displayed this degree of discipline. Unfortunately, that’s where the similarity ends as the delta between 2018 and 2019 consumption based on what we’ve modeled for the remaining months broadens significantly from there.  

Following our exclusive quarterly OCTG Inventory Yard Survey in October we’ll work to fill in “the blanks” on 2020 as we prepare to issue our next set of OCTG forecasts in the November Report. It is there where we will pore over our many lessons learned to answer the age-old question: what does the new year hold for OCTG? Until then we can’t help but wonder, is the writing on the wall or will we be saved by the bell? 

NOTE: Our monthly blog posts offer a slice of the content we publish in The OCTG Situation Report every month. For a complimentary copy of our intel please visit: https://www.octgsituationreport.com/subscribe

Photo Courtesy ConocoPhillips Company

Posted in 2019 E&P Budgets, Crude Oil Prices, E&P, E&P spending, Energy, ERW Pipe, Hot Rolled Coil, HRC, Inventory, OCTG, OCTG 2019 Forecast, OCTG Consumption, OCTG Consumption & Pricing, OCTG domestic shipments, OCTG Exports, OCTG Imports, OCTG inventories, OCTG Inventory Survey, OCTG Mills, OCTG Pricing, OCTG Processors, OCTG Producers, OCTG Spot Prices, Oil & Gas Industry, Oil & Gas Pricing, Oil Country Tublular Goods, Oil Patch | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Will ‘Chill, Baby, Chill’ be the Mantra for OCTG in 2019?

XTO Energy - Delaware Basin

Photo Courtesy XTO Energy

Susan Murphy | The OCTG Situation Report

Susan Murphy | Publisher + Editor-in-Chief

As we make our way through the dog days of August one begins to wonder if the “drill, baby, drill” mantra from 2008 will evolve into “chill, baby, chill” for 2019? OFS brass are forecasting drilling activity for the balance of the year will be ‘chillin,’ while softening OCTG prices are sending a chill down the spines of suppliers. Just looking at the many down arrows on our cover this month would lead many to believe that summer has given way to fall. So, is it all downhill from here? Let’s discuss. 

There’s certainly a lot to unpack when it comes to predicting how 2019 will ultimately play out. But with four months left in the year and news of a yield curve inversion warning of a potential recession within 8 to 24 months we can pretty much rule out an unexpected fortuitous event that might turn things around. Even the more recent and positive trajectory of crude prices; a combination of geopolitical events (Iran) and OPEC’s decision to extend production cuts through March 2020, don’t seem to be able to shake the stranglehold that Wall Street is exerting on E&Ps. This is presenting a conundrum for many who are at a loss to figure out how to goose demand and prices for all things OCTG.

On the latter, the OCTG marketplace continues to be mostly toxic. An all-out price war is taking place and while this may sound good for buyers we must issue a caveat emptor as we’re seeing quotes (many “unsolicited”) that seem too good to be true. Broadly speaking, most parties recognize “loss leader” prices are unsustainable in the long run. This brings us to the fact that Q4 program negotiations are currently underway at a time when US HRC pricing has come off the bottom. After three consecutive HRC pricing hikes steel producers are reporting a moderate level of stickiness and a slight recovery in HRC prices is forecast into the year-end. And while the Section 232 tariffs and quotas haven’t been a boon for OCTG, traders say tariffed HRC imports are having difficulty competing with domestics. Scrap prices have also risen to the occasion recently and are expected to remain stable throughout the balance of 2019. 

So, how do suppliers square higher raw material costs with existing market conditions? With Wall Street rewarding E&P profitability over production, rig counts slowing and the now cliche expression “budget exhaustion” rampant among E&Ps when discussing Capex, the odds of any OCTG price increase taking hold this year are doubtful. Unless, of course, there’s a significant reduction in inventories that would tamp down supplies. Thus, as long as OCTG stocks outstrip need, the laws of supply & demand will prevail. 

While there’s a lot of uneasiness in the market and numerous possibilities for it, we can all agree on one thing and that is “knowledge is power.” On that note, we’ll leave it to pop-culture icon and baseball great Yogi Berra to close our Report and offer some of his ‘wisdom’ on how to navigate uncertain times: You’ve got to be very careful if you don’t know where you’re going, because you might not get there.”

NOTE: Our monthly blog posts offer a slice of the content we publish in The OCTG Situation Report every month. For a complimentary copy of our intel please visit: https://www.octgsituationreport.com/subscribe

Photo Courtesy XTO Energy

Posted in 2019 E&P Budgets, CAPEX, Crude Oil Prices, Department of Commerce, E&P, E&P spending, Energy, ERW Pipe, Horizontal Drilling, Hot Rolled Coil, HRC, Inventory, OCTG, OCTG 2019 Forecast, OCTG Imports, OCTG inventories, OCTG mill, OCTG Mills, OCTG Pricing, OCTG Processors, OCTG Producers, OCTG Spot Prices, Oil & Gas Industry, Oil & Gas Pricing, Oil Country Tublular Goods, Oil Patch, Oil Services & Equipment, Onshore, Permian Basin, Prime Pipe, Seamless Pipe, Section 232, steel industry, Steel Tarrifs, Supply Chain, Tubular Goods | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

2Q19 OCTG Inventory Analysis: A Calm Before the Storm or Smooth(er) Sailing Ahead?

The OCTG Situation Report July 2019 Photo Courtesy Boomerang Tube, LLC

Photo Courtesy Boomerang Tube, LLC

Susan Murphy | The OCTG Situation Report

Susan Murphy | Publisher + Editor-in-Chief

The results of our exclusive 2Q19 Quarterly OCTG Inventory Yard Survey could be viewed as a beacon of hope for those who expressed trepidation about the outcome in our midyear market conversations last month. Turns out parties with an ear to the ground controlled inventories extremely effectively and managed to stem the tide from Q1 that could have easily rocked the boat this quarter. 

While most of you know the ropes by now we’ll remind everyone that we host our exclusive quarterly surveys in order to measure demand for OCTG throughout the entire US supply chain, delivering the most accurate OCTG inventory updates in the oil patch so that our subscribers can better navigate the course ahead. This quarter’s survey (period ending 6/30/19), revealed that “prime” OCTG inventories in the L48 expanded by a “manageable” amount all things considered. The bulk of increases were posted in the mill/processor segment; concentrated mainly with processors. Hikes were recorded in all but one category throughout the tri-state. Alloy stocks saw the greatest build Q/Q in Q2. Carbon was the only product category registering a decline. Gains in the closely-watched tubing category were witnessed again this quarter. 

The dampened levels of oilfield activity attributable to E&Ps continued commitment to capital discipline discussed last month in our June Report had a direct impact on the lower intensity of inventory builds and were especially evident in Oklahoma and West Texas this quarter. Lower import volumes Q/Q also played into shifts witnessed in the inventory mix this quarter. This was particularly apparent in the drop in carbon products; an import mainstay. Interestingly, tubing stocks were buffeted by twin forces in Q2: one that kept any potential build subdued and one that tempered the possibility of greater destocking. The two factors contributing to this situation were a modest drop in imports and a US DUC count that, despite a slight retreat in Q2, remains well elevated, respectively. 

So, what might the Q2 stats viewed in tandem with our other proprietary quarterly metrics tell us as we cruise into the second half of the year? First, observing the sinking Q/Q permit metric makes it increasingly clear that a rise in rig releases is in store for the next five months. This doesn’t mean a rig count collapse is on deck but conforms with the consensus opinion that “flat is the new up.” This presumption arose in the wake of the WTI volatility that occurred in Q2 and quashed the likelihood for a second half activity rebound that may have otherwise come about. Our estimate for Q2 consumption also offers a less than buoyant probability that OCTG demand will improve much over the balance of the year. At the same time, if we review the depressed Q2 consumption metric for 2018, it could have proven foreboding but didn’t materialize as such. Even though that scenario is unlikely in 2H19, due to different oil patch circumstances Y/Y, we simply can’t rule out the possibility that this metric could continue flat or grow slightly. Meanwhile, we’re keeping a close watch on HRC as mills attempt to shore up prices with a rash of recent price hikes. While this could prevent OCTG prices from drifting down M/M through December, at the moment we don’t see this torpedoing any forecasts for the next six months. 

In closing, we view the results of the 2Q19 inventory survey as setting the OCTG market on an even keel especially given the somewhat murky conditions we’re facing. Inventories of tubular goods may not yet be in a safe harbor, but they’re certainly better positioned to weather any challenges that might arise in the remaining months of the year. And that mates, is as close to “smooth sailing” as one could hope to hear.

NOTE: Our monthly blog posts offer a slice of the content we publish in The OCTG Situation Report every month. For a complimentary copy of our intel please visit: https://www.octgsituationreport.com/subscribe

Photo Courtesy Boomerang Tube, LLC.

 

Posted in 2019 E&P Budgets, Crude Oil Prices, Department of Commerce, DUCs, E&P, E&P spending, Energy, Hot Rolled Coil, HRC, Inventory, OCTG, OCTG Consumption, OCTG Consumption & Pricing, OCTG inventories, OCTG Inventory Survey, OCTG Mills, OCTG Pricing, OCTG Processors, OCTG Producers, OCTG Spot Prices, Oil & Gas Industry, Oil & Gas Pricing, Oil Country Tublular Goods, Oil Patch, Oil Services & Equipment, Onshore, Permian Basin, Prime Pipe, Q2, Seamless Pipe, Supply Chain, Tubular Goods, upstream OCTG | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

OCTG 2H19: Rolling with the Punches

The OCTG Situation Report June 2019 Photo Courtesy Surge Energy

Photo Courtesy Surge Energy

Susan Murphy | The OCTG Situation Report

Susan Murphy | Publisher + Editor-in-Chief

Each year in June we take the temperature of the oil patch, speaking with people from every walk of the supply chain to get a sense of the market from their perspective. This exercise inevitably yields valuable and colorful commentary on the present state of affairs. Last year could have been summed up in “232” words as discussions were almost entirely variables on the theme of the investigation. In reviewing the results of this year’s midyear market calls, one phrase best captures the sentiment for OCTG in 2H19: “rolling with the punches.”  

A sense of OCTG overcapacity is permeating the patch at this juncture, which is giving pause to many participants. We covered some of the more recent events leading to this view in our May Report. Coupled with the past week’s crude price inflection that sent the price/bbl into bear market territory, this scenario gives rise to increasing uncertainty moving into the back half of the year. No surprise when considering budgets were set at $50 – $55/bbl. It isn’t so much that demand is waning, it’s more that supply is omnipresent. As one party put it, “the operator story has remained mostly static since Capex budgets were announced earlier this year”; it’s the supply side that’s been caught flat-footed after assuming that the buoyant oil prices through most of 1H19 would prompt budget increases around this time. In past year’s operator commitments to discipline have been mostly met with a nod and a wink. Tighter grips on operator spends translate to an unlimited amount of supply chasing a limited amount of demand. Even with the possibility that the upcoming OPEC meeting will result in an extension of the production-cut agreement, it is unlikely such an event will budge the strict budgets of most operators or entice Wall Street to extend more credit. 

Speaking of Wall Street, the word “credit” was used deliberately and repeatedly and in a way we haven’t heard since the late 2000s. Indeed, folks from the supply side corroborated a heightened awareness of the risks associated with overextending credit during such a state of flux. Another phrase that punctuated many conversations was, “dog eat dog.” Fierce competition for business has become ‘trolling’ for dollars, making it difficult for the market to predict a bottom. Most were in agreement that prices will tilt down for the remaining months of 2019 although a few remained optimistic thinking things might turn for the better in Q4. We discuss this in greater depth in our June Report.

Intel from investment banking firm Cowen says that E&Ps spent 28% of their ’19 budgets in Q1 and many others anticipate a similar situation to 2018 when “budget exhaustion” was the operative buzzword into the year-end. Remarkably, even with all the exhaust-talk late last year the rig count really didn’t suffer and it’s possible we won’t see a tremendous contraction at the end of this year although available funding will, in many cases, be funneled to completion efforts and remain steady for the “majors.” Private E&Ps remain the “wild card.”

American poet Robert Frost was quoted saying, “the best way out is always through.” While encouraging signs for the short term were scarce throughout our confab, the consensus seems to be on “consolidation” as the answer to many of the challenges the industry faces. Consolidation in supply and consolidation in operators—circumstances that appear to be taking shape around us—now offer possibilities for a brighter vision for the future as we approach ’20/20.’

NOTE: Our monthly blog posts offer a slice of the content we publish in The OCTG Situation Report every month. For a complimentary copy of our intel please visit: https://www.octgsituationreport.com/subscribe

Photo Courtesy Surge Energy

Posted in 2019 E&P Budgets, CAPEX, Cowen & Company, Crude Oil Prices, Department of Commerce, E&P, E&P spending, Energy, ERW Pipe, Inventory, OCTG, OCTG 2019 Forecast, OCTG 2H19, OCTG CAPEX, OCTG Consumption, OCTG Consumption & Pricing, OCTG domestic shipments, OCTG Exports, OCTG Imports, OCTG inventories, OCTG Inventory Survey, OCTG Mills, OCTG Pricing, OCTG Processors, OCTG Producers, OCTG Spot Prices, OCTG Trade Case, Oil & Gas Industry, Oil & Gas Pricing, Oil Country Tublular Goods, Oil Patch, Oil Services & Equipment, Onshore, Permian Basin, Prime Pipe, Q2, Section 232, steel industry, Steel Tarrifs, Steel Trade Case, Supply Chain, Tubular Goods, upstream OCTG | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment