Y’all know the drill: it’s the end of Q3 and time to determine how the oil patch is shaping up for the balance of the year. The goal of this exercise is always the same: gauging the fitness of the industry by measuring demand for OCTG throughout the entire supply chain across the lower 48. After crunching the numbers we were able to firm up our predictions for the quarter.
The results weren’t altogether surprising. Can it be that the combination of imports and new U.S. capacity is all beginning to hit home? We only wish there was a magic bullet to fend off the inevitable. Unfortunately, it appears the OCTGenie is out of the bottle.
For a quarter that was anything but routine, we end with a lot of balls in the air. So the $64,000 question is: how will this all workout? In a fit of optimism we might conclude: “why sweat it?” Demand is still reasonably strong: commodity prices are holding fairly steady and total well completions and footages continue to rise. But the reality as we see it is simple: 2014 will likely come down to the survival of the fittest.